Friday, May 17, 2013

The Role of Vaccination in Reducing Infection

The introduction of a number of vaccines across the world in the past century has played a tremendous role in reducing infections, and more importantly, death. From rabies to polio, vaccines have nearly eliminated many pathogens that used to pose a threat to people's lives on a daily basis. Though the ethics and safety of vaccinations (I may write a separate blog on this) have been argued over the years, the one thing that cannot be argued is the role they have played in reducing, and in some cases, eradicating worldwide infection (okay, well, there are people who try to argue this too, but it's better to just ignore them). This can be demonstrated easily with statistics of infections from before and after the introduction of each vaccine.

Smallpox is the perfect example of what we hope to achieve with immunizations. With the proper and complete implementation of smallpox vaccines, the disease was completely eliminated and we no longer need to be immunized against it! Smallpox was no minor illness, either. Just in the 20th century, it was responsible for 300-500 million deaths, as well as millions and millions more throughout history. Now think about that number, and now think how we no longer need to worry about this terrible disease. Thanks to vaccinations, we don't really have to worry about a number of diseases today.

Below are some other examples of how well vaccines are doing their job in reducing infections.

Meningitis (Haemophilus influenzae)
There used to be about 20,000 cases of Haemophilus influenzae (type b) in children and infants each year, but after the introduction of the Hib vaccine in 1987, the incidence of this infection decreased by 98%.

Polio
Through the 1940's and 50's, there was an average of around 16,000 paralytic cases of polio each year just in the United States. Paralysis was only seen in about 1% of cases, though, with more people being asymptomatic or experiencing mild symptoms. Still, the virus spread so easily that thousands were severely affected each year. Just ten years after the introduction of the Salk vaccine in the United States, only 61 cases had been reported. Although the United States experienced a lot of success from the vaccine, the rest of the world was still experiencing the polio endemic through the 80's, until the World Health Organization decided to try and eradicate the disease in 1988. Since then, the worldwide totals have declined from 350,000 cases to just 187 in 2012, nearing ever so closely to the goal of eradication.

Here is a nice graph of the cases of polio in the United States.



Diphtheria
There were about 200,000 cases of diphtheria each year in the U.S. before a vaccine was developed. Now, there have only been 5 total cases in the past 10 years!

Mumps
Mumps is a (usually) mild virus that is covered by our MMR (Measles, Mumps and Rubella) vaccine. It is a major cause of deafness in children though, and can also cause orchitis (swelling of the testes) in males. Before a vaccine was developed, we saw about 300,000 cases each year, reduced to under 300 cases in 2001.

Hepatitis B
The Hepatitis B Virus has infected 2 billion people in the world at some point. 2 billion! This is a virus that is associated with liver problems, and about 25% of people who catch it would be expected to die as a result of it sometime in their lives. In the 80's, more than 450,000 people were infected with the virus each year. Now, this number has been reduced to less than 80,000 each year thanks to vaccination.

Rubella
Rubella, another virus covered by the MMR vaccine, is heavily associated with causing miscarriages and birth defects in pregnant women who acquire the illness. In 1964, before routine use of a vaccine against Rubella, there were 11,000 miscarriages and 20,000 infants born with defects as a result of the virus. By 2,000, there were only 6 reported cases.

These are only a few of the illnesses covered by vaccines today. To learn about more, I'd suggest visiting CDC-Vaccine-Preventable Diseases

Well since we barely see these things anymore, can't we just stop vaccinating?

Well, no. Luckily there were other places "courageous" enough to have this same line of thinking to make answering this easier. Sure we're seeing fewer and fewer cases through the years, but this doesn't mean the pathogenic agent has just disappeared, and it certainly doesn't mean it can't easily be brought over from another country. Take, for example, the Soviet Union. Before its collapse, it had similar vaccination programs to ours, and as a result, the diseases vaccinated against were uncommon. But, when the USSR collapsed, several things went with it, including their record keeping and the standards of their immunization program. Shortly after, the area experienced an epidemic of diphtheria, with about 200,000 cases being reported.

Japan also provided a wonderful example of why you can't just stop vaccinating until a pathogen is completely eradicated. In the 70's, rumors spread about the pertussis vaccine's efficacy and safety, so people stopped getting them. In just a few years, the incidence of pertussis in Japan increased by 3,200%! And, of course, shortly after, Japan's government learned from their mistake and began mandating the vaccine.

I know people who don't get vaccinated, and they've never caught any of these things.

Of course not everyone is going to catch these illnesses, that would still be the case even if nobody got vaccinated. The fact is that people who are immunized are less likely to become sick, and in the event that they still do, they most often suffer very mild symptoms compared to their unvaccinated counterparts. People who do not get vaccinated fortunately still benefit from everyone else that does, a concept known as herd immunity. In herd immunity, the large majority of a population is immune to a pathogen, thus, it is much harder for said pathogen to transmit person to person and infect those who aren't immune. If everyone stopped getting immunizations, herd immunity would soon become irrelevant. Wiki has a nice table demonstrating how many people need to be immunized for herd immunity to be effective. 


Conclusion: vaccination is important!

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Case Fatality Rates and Modern Medicine's Role in Reducing them

I have read a few places recently where people have pointed out that medicine is ineffective, doesn't work, there's no point in using it, etc.Well, you'd have to be pretty ignorant to believe that, but it made me wonder just how our infections might be if we didn't receive the treatments we have available today. I figured a good indication of that would be to compare the case fatality rates of untreated diseases to those that were treated. If a treatment significantly reduces the CFR, it's obviously doing its job. This doesn't even take into account the less-severe symptoms that are usually experienced when treated, but that's a lot more subjective and harder to judge with numbers. I wasn't able to find a comprehensive list of what I was looking for so I have decided to compose a list of different diseases including their case fatality rates when left untreated as well as the CFR when they are treated. Below I have highlighted a few things, and at the bottom is the table of multiple diseases and their CFRs. I plan on adding more and updating this over time.

Ebola
The Ebola virus is weird because we still don't even know where it come from. We are sure of a few things, though. It's found in Africa and it's almost certainly a zoonosis, meaning it comes from an animal. The case fatality rates among incidence of the ebola virus averages about 68%, though it varies from 30-90% depending on the outbreak. Most current treatment is just supportive, though there has been research on a treatment (in rhesus monkeys) which reduced the CFR to 33%. The strain used in the research previously had a CFR of almost 100%.

Bubonic Plague
Yersinia pestis is the culprit here, and when treated, only causes death in 1-15% of infected individuals. When left untreated, it's associated with a 40-60% fatality rate. With modern medicine and sanitary habits, this organism doesn't really cause many problems. This is the same organism that is thought to have wiped out 1/3 of Europe's population in the 14th century!

Smallpox
The Smallpox virus was declared officially eradicated in 1979. Now, only a select few places are holding onto the virus (one being the CDC), and they are under secure protection to prevent bio-terrorist events. When smallpox was prevalent, a CFR of about 30% was observed. This varied, however, with some strains being almost a guaranteed death. Even people who are vaccinated can be susceptible to the disease they've been immunized against, and this was no different for smallpox. However, those who are vaccinated typically experience milder symptoms, as is supported by the lower, 3% CFR of people who contracted the virus that had been previously immunized against it.

                                        An average case of smallpox. Glad this isn't still around!

HIV/AIDS
It is true that an infection of HIV doesn't directly kill you. This in no way means that it's not deadly, though. HIV infects and destroys your CD4+ Helper T Cells to a point that it renders your immune system useless. Once a person's CD4+ count drops to a certain point (<400/uL), they are diagnosed with AIDS. Without a properly functioning immune system, a person is susceptible to being severely infected by pathogens that normal people live with each and every day without any problems, such as Pneumocystis jiroveci and Candida albicans. Treatment is continuing to improve, fortunately. Twenty years ago, only 20% of people diagnosed with the condition could expect to live for 5 years. Now, that number is over 80%.

Cancer
Cancer is a debilitating condition caused by the uncontrolled growth of abnormal cells. When it goes untreated, it will almost always eventually result in death because it impairs the normal function of the body. Early detection of cancer is the best thing you can do to stop it. Cancer becomes more deadly the longer you leave it uncontrolled, and by the time it metastasizes it will be deadly more often than not, even when given the best treatments. Many years ago, being diagnosed with cancer was basically a death sentence. With today's treatments, many people will survive the illness without a problem, especially when caught early. There is so much promising research being done that I believe will essentially make cancer a non-issue in the future. Because of the relative difficulty of finding cases that went untreated combined with the fact it is almost always deadly when not treated, I didn't fill in the CFR (untreated) section for cancers.

Note: Though case fatality rate and mortality rate aren't technically the same, you will often see them used synonymously. Case fatality rate refers to how likely an infection will result in death. For example, 100 people are diagnosed with AIDS, and 50 die, giving a CFR of 50%. Mortality rate is the measurement of deaths in a population. For example, AIDS kills 2.7 out of every 100,000 people.


Disease
CFR (untreated) CFR (treated/vaccinated)
Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia
---
15%*
Acute Myelocytic Leukemia
---
30-40%*
Bone Cancer
---
30%*
Breast Cancer
---
16%*
Bubonic Plague
40-60%
1-15%
Chronic Myelocytic Leukemia
---
20-40%*
Colorectal Cancer
---
41%*
Diphtheria
5-20%
0%
Ebola
68%
---
HIV/AIDS
80-90% (5 yrs)
15% (5 yrs)
Leishmaniasis
10%
0%
Liver Cancer
---
72%*
Malaria (P. falciparum)
20-25%
<1%
Measles
15-25%
0-1% 
Melanoma
---
21%**
Pertussis
3.7%
0-1%
Prostate Cancer
---
1%*, 2%**
Rabies
~100%
~0%
Smallpox
30%
       3% (vaccine)
Syphilis
25%
0%
Testicular Cancer
---
1-4%*
Tetanus
58%
0-10%
Trypanosomiasis
80%
6%
Tuberculosis (active)
>50%
<18%
Note: Cancer numbers are fatality rates, not survival rates
*Cancer CFRs based on a 5 year survival rate among early stages (through stage 2)
**Cancer CFRs based on a 10 year survival rate among early stages (through stage 2)

References

http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA430462
http://www.cancer.org/
http://emedicine.medscape.com/article/829233-overview#a0199
http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/downloads/meas.pdf
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9557424
http://www.mass.gov/eohhs/docs/dph/aids/2006-profiles/dying-aids.pdf
http://ci.vbi.vt.edu/pathinfo/pathogens/falciparum.html


Saturday, April 27, 2013

My First Blog

I don't plan on posting that much (then again I don't really know how much is considered often since this is my first blogging experience), but I figured this would be a nice place to gather my thoughts, ideas and research. It won't be too boring (or so Kaitlin assured me), so feel free to read!